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So why does the prospect of a quarter-point interest rate increase from the...
So what’s making the U.S. and global markets so nervous? It’s very clear that markets are worried. The Dow Jones Industrial Average put in a 444-point swing yesterday, September 9, between the high for...
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Fed does nothing today but speaks clearly–comments likely to put more...
The Federal Reserve did nothing today with its Open Market Committee voting, with only one dissent, to keep benchmark short-term rates at 0% to 0.25%. But for once the Fed said something very clear—and...
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Why this emerging market crisis might be different–less like a heart attack...
The current meltdown in emerging financial markets and in emerging market economies isn’t like the 1997 Asian financial crisis that smashed economies and stock markets from Indonesia to Thailand to...
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Market doubts grow about China’s ability to turn around growth trend
One thing I would have been willing to bet on was that stocks trading on China’s mainland markets would climb today, September 22. With Chinese President Xi Jinping starting a state visit to the United...
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Sell FMC
FMC (FMC) has two big problems. It’s agriculture solutions business is too exposed to Latin America in general and Brazil in particular, and the stock is not cheap enough given the dismal near- and...
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Buy ProShares Short Emerging Markets ETF
The plunge in developed market bank stocks–the U.S. KBW Bank Index moved into bear market territory today–is bringing intensified attention to the debt bubble in China. The problem isn’t new–some...
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Update Itau Unibanco’s “impeachment rally”
Update March 14, 2016. The New York traded ADRs of Brazil’s Itau Unibanco (ITUB) were up 37% for 2016 to date as of the close on March 11. Most of that move has taken place in the last couple of...
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In the shorter term a dovish Fed sets off an emerging market rally
In the short-run (however, long that might be) financial markets have decided to jump on the “dovish Federal Reserve” band wagon. Thursday, the dollar was down again and (as of 2 p.m. New York time)...
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Mexico’s troubles argue that “Trade of the Decade” in emerging markets is...
The effects of the plunge in oil prices and a slow global economy continue to ripple through developing economies. Mexico is better positioned to weather this storm than many of its peers. The fact...
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Markets move to price in June/July interest rate increase from Federal Reserve
Yesterday’s release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s April meeting has produced a massive change in market sentiment. Monday before release of the minutes financial markets were giving odds on...
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The risk-on/risk-off market is back again
Step aside global central banks.It’s time for the pattern called risk-on/risk off to set the direction of global financial markets again. In my book on volatility, Juggling with Knives, I’ve included...
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Stronger than expected report on initial claims for unemployment leads to a...
The financial markets have stalled today with some minor pullback as investors and traders try to figure out what this morning’s better than predicted report on initial claims for unemployment means in...
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Goldilocks has a bit of an anxiety attack ahead of the weekend
What had been up earlier this week was down today. U.S. stocks retreated with the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index down 0.90% to 2096.43, moving back below 2100 again. Emerging market stocks fell...
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Morgan Stanley says “No” again to China on emerging markets index inclusion
Wait until next year. Again. Morgan Stanley Capital International, the keeper of the MSCI Emerging Markets index, yesterday decided that it wasn’t time yet to include China’s Shanghai and Shenzhen...
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Improved polls for “staying” in Brexit vote lead rally (except for yen and...
A shift in momentum in the polls toward “stay” in the June 23 referendum on continued membership by the United Kingdom in the European Union has led to a huge bounce in riskier global assets today with...
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